It’s the Economy, Stupid: Why the Midterms Were Predictable

A lot of people are trying to translate the midterm losses on the Republican side into some deeper meaning when this is all rather simple:

“It’s the economy, Stupid” — James Carville

When you’re glued into politics, reading blogs, scrolling through social media, you get inundated with niche issues and everyone is trying to convince you that this is the defining problem that will swing an election.

And it never really is. These are usually tertiary to the real reason the average person who barely cares about politics got in their car and drove to the polls; kind of like a protest drive since gas prices are relatively high.

The country isn’t split between hardcore Democrats and Republicans because clustered in the middle are fickle and swing voters who are reacting to the moment. These are people who selectively vote (even if they predominantly vote for one party) or might vote for both parties.

These are regular Americans who pay more attention to their wallets than what some Ivy League economist says about the economy.

I once heard someone describe the economy for the average person as a “vibe” versus a reality and I think they’re kind of right. When the economy is doing well, you hear from friends and family of someone getting a new job, buying a new house or leveling up in life in some fashion.

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When the economy is bad, all discussions with people in your life are rather bleak and asking people to spend money on a night out features hesitancy as everyone’s money is tight.

The midterm results are predictable from a couple of stances: history and the economy.

In the past 50 years, there have only been 2 out of 13 midterms that went in favor of the party of the president in power. This means that 85% of the time, voters choose the opposition party to the president.

History tells us that Americans take about two years to dislike what the president is doing and punish their party in the midterms. As I said before, American voters for national elections are fickle.

This coincides with the only 2 times that it went in favor of the party in power, when the president had approval ratings over 60% (Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush).

Pretty much every president has low approval ratings, or at least periods of low approval ratings that coincided with midterm elections.

Right or wrong, the economic woes of the public will always be put at the feet of the president. If the stock market sucks, it’s the president’s fault. If you can’t afford DoorDash like you used to, it’s the president’s fault.

The midterms are the way for the American public to punish the president in power. Yes, the typical political discussions matter, like quality of candidates etc. However, if people are angry and emotional, they don’t generally make rational decisions.

If the reason for them voting is based on spite, do you really have a chance of changing their minds? You can't fact your way out of shifting an emotional voter.

Some pundits are making this as an indictment against the Iran war, which I don’t think is accurate. Americans barely care about what’s happening outside of our country; they just care about how it affects them.

If Trump bombed Iran every day at 9 am, Americans wouldn’t care as long as gas prices are low. If killing the Ayatollah means that home prices never come down, they’d strongly have you reconsider that decision.

I know I’m making Americans economically callous but history tells us this. And I don’t blame us for being this way. There are only so many things happening in the world that I am capable of caring about. But it’ll definitely matter when I have to literally pay the cost of it when it comes back home.

I’m not a Republican but I voted Republican because immigration is my number one issue as I see it as an economic, human rights, and national security issue all wrapped up in one blanket and they’re the only ones at least speaking my language.

However, I don’t necessarily blame people voting against Trump even if I disagree. I know why they’re doing it and the reason you wouldn’t vote for a party or candidate isn’t necessarily the reason someone is voting for them.

So, none of this surprises me. We have a history of flip-flopping between parties, which honestly, I would rather have than what I see happening in Western Europe which is about how insanely leftist do you want to be since there is no real counterbalance.

If you’re a Republican who is upset today, it’s not the end of the world. Here is what will happen: Mostly nothing since campaign rhetoric is always about 90% stronger in words than what they will actually do once they hit the bureaucracy of D.C.

If you’re a Democrat who is happy, savor it for now because history tells us that you will be to blame when things don’t go as you promised the public.

If you’re worried about leftists gaining power, keep in mind that a lot of people haven’t really heard many of these people talk in context before. When the public hears how batshit insane Talarico is, voters may choose differently in four years.

Or, which is possible, Talarico changes his tone and his identity to satisfy external forces (I mean, politicians aren’t known for being genuine anyways).

Today is not a day for panic if you’re on the right; it’s a day of reflection. Trump will be out of power in two years and the best thing you can do is critique today’s failures so your party and the American public can have a more prosperous future.