Typically when you see videos or news stories about crime and dysfunction in major cities, you'll see people say "They voted for this". However, the issue isn't that they voted for this but rather that they aren't voting.Speaking Wrong At The Right Time is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Great point.. These turnout numbers actually drastically underestimate the problem. Because these are all Deep Blue cities, the only election that matters is the Democratic primary.
Typically, primary elections have much lower turnout than general elections, and they are dominated by ideologues who are very unrepresentative of typical voters.
This is unfortunately the rule in American politics today. The ideologues control the process, and Normies are tuning out.
Great analysis and a very persuasive diagnosis of the problem--I wonder if your hopeful take on the possibility of change could be right? Makes me want to run for Mayor of New York!
Heck, even as a council member. There are people who are running unopposed in the city council in NYC. People just don't show up to vote or try to compete for office.
Very true! I have a feeling, however, that a serious challenge by a strong new candidate would prod The Beast into action and it would end up winning that race, by fair means or foul. But you’re right that it’s about apathy, and apathy is another word for despair, but also laziness and cowardice.
This is a very powerful analysis that gives these forgotten voters in Blue cities hope for change. It’s easy to assume incorrectly to believe that these voters keep voting for these do nothing Mayors, Governors etc. just because of party loyalty. I’m guilty of this assumption. There is a tremendous opportunity to reach out to these apathetic voters and present a positive change. Individuals like Scott Pressler and Brandon Stratka have made great progress offering hope to these voters in the Republican Party.
Exactly. Imagine if you had a business and someone told you that 70% of the market is untapped...you'd think you hit a gold mine. I want people to see it like this: "How can another party tap into the 70%?"
Adam...this article has some good information in it but i think we should also ask why are they disaffected? Why don't they vote? Who has told them their vote doesn't count? Once we understand that, then we can help them reclaim their agency. Also,there are rumblings that some communities get approached by ballot harvesters who 'volunteer' to take their ballot to the polling stations. That also has to stop... Vote in person. Period.
There has to be an interest to understand why people are doing what they're doing. Most people in politics have no interest in motivating people or understanding their apathy.
I agree. And this is the problem. Until those who are most affected are included, things will not change. I am watching the communities in Chicago who are pushing back. It will be interesting to see if something comes of that... Also, San Francisco....everything got cleaned up for the Chinese premieres visit but that couldn't be done for the residents...🤔
Nothing will change until Citizens United is overturned. There is entirely too much $$ from big business (dark money) invested in candidates. Those that win are beholden to the $$ and investors that got them elected. It doesn't matter how many people vote....the outcome will still be the same. Over turn Citizens United!
As a 20 plus year Angeleno I am so glad you brought this up. I hear this all the time & have to explain that no one votes here in LA & that Beverly Hills ain't LA, it is its own city, but they have to live with what LA decides & are a very red Republican stronghold in a blue city. People do vote here but not many, you can look up the numbers it is free info but so much apathy among people so they don't bother. I worked out congressional campaign for a friend, I learned a lot. She didn't win but it was eye opening. There are all number of things that also keep so much from getting voted on here like collecting signatures and all the nitpicky things that count as a signature. I can see how people just feel like their vote wont matter but there is a lot going on before anyone can vote.
While I think your thesis is true about the human nature behind these voting patterns, I’ll play devils advocate for a moment.
The most recent Chicago mayoralty election had two Democrat candidates, one who ran on a law and order platform, and Brandon Johnson, who ran on an extreme “progressive” platform.
Essentially, Chicago voters had a real choice, yet they did not vote in significant numbers, and even went on to choose the candidate most in line with the same “progressive” policies which had been proven not to work.
Is Chicago an outlier? Maybe. Or maybe there is a more systemic issue. I don’t know.
Those low figures are eye-popping. Another factor contributing, imo, is that the 2 major parties, except for a handful of politicians, are perceived as not having many differences. One just has to look at the past Presidents (R and D) ganging up to undermine Trump.
Don’t forget most people don’t have the day off from work and it is always a Tuesday. If you’re trying to survive a 45 minute or so diversion is costing you sleep/income/ whatever.
Yes, however, many cities have early voting for local elections. As I was researching this, there were many articles highlighting the lack of turnout for even early voting.
Interesting analysis; Joetato claims he got 81 million votes - more than Barry Sotero did in 2008 or 2012; Where all those extra votes did come from? In another democRAT stronghold, Seattle, the Bad Orange Man got both more raw votes, as well as a a higher percentage of the total in 2020 than he did in 2016. Anecdotal yes, but something smells fishy in Denmark....
Great point.. These turnout numbers actually drastically underestimate the problem. Because these are all Deep Blue cities, the only election that matters is the Democratic primary.
Typically, primary elections have much lower turnout than general elections, and they are dominated by ideologues who are very unrepresentative of typical voters.
This is unfortunately the rule in American politics today. The ideologues control the process, and Normies are tuning out.
That's actually a very good point. I've noticed that as well.
Great analysis and a very persuasive diagnosis of the problem--I wonder if your hopeful take on the possibility of change could be right? Makes me want to run for Mayor of New York!
Heck, even as a council member. There are people who are running unopposed in the city council in NYC. People just don't show up to vote or try to compete for office.
Very true! I have a feeling, however, that a serious challenge by a strong new candidate would prod The Beast into action and it would end up winning that race, by fair means or foul. But you’re right that it’s about apathy, and apathy is another word for despair, but also laziness and cowardice.
I just go back to what motivates people and if you give people no motivation, then they won't do it.
You’re right. It’s fundamental.
This is a very powerful analysis that gives these forgotten voters in Blue cities hope for change. It’s easy to assume incorrectly to believe that these voters keep voting for these do nothing Mayors, Governors etc. just because of party loyalty. I’m guilty of this assumption. There is a tremendous opportunity to reach out to these apathetic voters and present a positive change. Individuals like Scott Pressler and Brandon Stratka have made great progress offering hope to these voters in the Republican Party.
"There is a tremendous opportunity"
Exactly. Imagine if you had a business and someone told you that 70% of the market is untapped...you'd think you hit a gold mine. I want people to see it like this: "How can another party tap into the 70%?"
Adam...this article has some good information in it but i think we should also ask why are they disaffected? Why don't they vote? Who has told them their vote doesn't count? Once we understand that, then we can help them reclaim their agency. Also,there are rumblings that some communities get approached by ballot harvesters who 'volunteer' to take their ballot to the polling stations. That also has to stop... Vote in person. Period.
There has to be an interest to understand why people are doing what they're doing. Most people in politics have no interest in motivating people or understanding their apathy.
I agree. And this is the problem. Until those who are most affected are included, things will not change. I am watching the communities in Chicago who are pushing back. It will be interesting to see if something comes of that... Also, San Francisco....everything got cleaned up for the Chinese premieres visit but that couldn't be done for the residents...🤔
Nothing will change until Citizens United is overturned. There is entirely too much $$ from big business (dark money) invested in candidates. Those that win are beholden to the $$ and investors that got them elected. It doesn't matter how many people vote....the outcome will still be the same. Over turn Citizens United!
As a 20 plus year Angeleno I am so glad you brought this up. I hear this all the time & have to explain that no one votes here in LA & that Beverly Hills ain't LA, it is its own city, but they have to live with what LA decides & are a very red Republican stronghold in a blue city. People do vote here but not many, you can look up the numbers it is free info but so much apathy among people so they don't bother. I worked out congressional campaign for a friend, I learned a lot. She didn't win but it was eye opening. There are all number of things that also keep so much from getting voted on here like collecting signatures and all the nitpicky things that count as a signature. I can see how people just feel like their vote wont matter but there is a lot going on before anyone can vote.
Thank you for adding to the conversation
Excellent commentary on a sad situation... it explains a lot!
While I think your thesis is true about the human nature behind these voting patterns, I’ll play devils advocate for a moment.
The most recent Chicago mayoralty election had two Democrat candidates, one who ran on a law and order platform, and Brandon Johnson, who ran on an extreme “progressive” platform.
Essentially, Chicago voters had a real choice, yet they did not vote in significant numbers, and even went on to choose the candidate most in line with the same “progressive” policies which had been proven not to work.
Is Chicago an outlier? Maybe. Or maybe there is a more systemic issue. I don’t know.
That's a fair response.
I might say that the most engaged voters are likely progressives or very left leaning.
Those low figures are eye-popping. Another factor contributing, imo, is that the 2 major parties, except for a handful of politicians, are perceived as not having many differences. One just has to look at the past Presidents (R and D) ganging up to undermine Trump.
Don’t forget most people don’t have the day off from work and it is always a Tuesday. If you’re trying to survive a 45 minute or so diversion is costing you sleep/income/ whatever.
Yes, however, many cities have early voting for local elections. As I was researching this, there were many articles highlighting the lack of turnout for even early voting.
This is an unfortunate reality!
What is the turn out for comparatively well-run (or Red) cities? Are there any?
I think the largest city with a Republican mayor was Jacksonville until July 2023. They had a 33 percent voter turnout.
Hmm, same for "small towns" too?
I think most conservatives or centrists would vote for "leave me alone" or "just don't touch anything" if those were candidates.
This is true. A lot of areas in the country only have single party attention.
Interesting analysis; Joetato claims he got 81 million votes - more than Barry Sotero did in 2008 or 2012; Where all those extra votes did come from? In another democRAT stronghold, Seattle, the Bad Orange Man got both more raw votes, as well as a a higher percentage of the total in 2020 than he did in 2016. Anecdotal yes, but something smells fishy in Denmark....